The Guardian
International diplomacy is a dry, unexciting and complicated business conducted behind closed doors. But when things go wrong, the results can be spectacular, disastrous and very public. A notorious example is Germany’s over-hasty recognition of Croatia’s independence in 1991, widely held to have helped trigger the Bosnian war. Another is Syria, where the war has now claimed at least 250,000 lives and displaced more than half the population. In a week of further, brutal conflict in and around Aleppo, the dreadful consequences of the failure of international policy are again painfully evident.
The mistakes, blunders and betrayals committed by European, US, Russian, Iranian, Turkish and Arab policymakers over Syria, from the onset of the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011, are too numerous to list here. Initially, the belief was widespread among western leaders that Assad, like Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, would not survive in office. How wrong they were. Then, as the war developed, the strength and unity of the forces ranged against Assad were consistently overestimated. European and US politicians assumed, wrongly, that the Sunni Arab monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia, backed the same groups and shared the same aims as themselves. A pivotal moment came in 2013 when Syrian government forces used chemical weapons against civilians. US military intervention loomed. Then parliament, notably Ed Miliband’s Labour party, still smarting over Iraq, refused to endorse British involvement. The US Congress followed suit and Obama backed down. With hindsight, it seems likely that a purposeful campaign against military targets could have forced Assad to the negotiating table. Instead, he took heart from western diffidence. In Britain, an embarrassed silence now reigns where David Cameron’s promised “comprehensive strategy” is supposed to be.
Western and Arab policy failures have had other striking consequences. One was the rise of Islamic State (Isis) jihadism in the ungoverned spaces of Syria and Iraq, a phenomenon with its roots in the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. Isis stepped into a power vacuum created by the Syrian war. As the US, Britain, France and their Arab allies, alarmed by the threat to their own people, turned their firepower on them, the plight of Syria’s civilians was all but forgotten. Inevitably, Isis retaliated by exporting its nihilist violence into the heart of Europe. And Syria’s abandoned people headed west in their hundreds of thousands, causing a refugee crisis that remains unresolved.
Another major consequence was the open door back into the Middle East theatre that the policy vacuum has afforded Russia. Always quick to exploit western weakness and indecision, Vladimir Putin sent bombers and missiles to the aid of Assad, acting, with Iran, to shore up Moscow’s main Arab ally, secure its Mediterranean bases, spread its influence and deal a strategic blow to the west. All this Putin continues to do with cold-blooded determination. In Aleppo and elsewhere, there is no hospital, school, neighbourhood or home safe from Russia or Russian-backed onslaughts and no form of warfare, including the use of chlorine gas, off-limits.
It is not enough to bewail this dreadful situation, point the finger of blame at others, condemn the latest outrage, circle the western wagons against Isis and hunker down in the hope that, somehow, the war will burn itself out. Children are killed and maimed every day. A nation is suffering the most appalling trauma before our eyes. The ramifications of this conflict impinge directly on our everyday lives, with ever more inescapable, obvious consequences. If we do not feel the most acute shame, we certainly should. Yes, some are more at fault than others. Yes, it has been going on for more than five years and nothing seems to work. But yes, the responsibility of us all, moral, political and humanitarian, to try again, and again, and again if need be, to stop the killing has not diminished. It intensifies with every day that passes.
Talks on UN-supervised humanitarian access to Aleppo – where reports yesterday suggested that rebels may have broken the siege, at least temporarily – and other stricken areas are staggering on in New York. They must be given top priority by all governments. Discussions are also taking place about resuming the Geneva peace process. They, too, must gain new impetus, not least through a more constructive, non-judgmental engagement between the US and Russia. Countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia must face severe consequences if they continue to use Syria to pursue regional agendas. Most of all, the international community must unite in telling Assad to step down. While he remains in power in Damascus, there can be no peace. His departure could finally break the cycle of violence.