Wednesday 20 June 2016
Baladi News – (Saleh Abu Ismael)
Over the past few days, the rebels took the initiative again in Aleppo southern countryside and Kurds and Turkmen mountains in Lattakia northern countryside. Military experts explained that the most important factor in the recent advances of the rebels in these extremely important areas is the absence of the Russian air support, or more accurately, the mitigation of the Russian airstrikes. So, is Russia considering abandoning Assad, or does it want to exert pressure on him to stay under control?
Last September was a very critical time for Assad’s regime. At that point, the rebels had achieved victories and took several areas from the grab of the Syrian regime. However, the Russian intervention that time rescued the swaying regime.
The previous weeks witnessed advances of the rebels side against the regime forces and the supporting Shiite militias in Aleppo southern countryside, liberating important villages and sites. The same scenario was repeated in Lattakia countryside, where rebels announced the launch of al-Yarmouk battle, liberating important points in the Kurds and Turkmen mountains. Unusually, the Russian airplanes were absent during these battles, which altered the balance of power in favor of the rebels.
Abdul Moien al-Masri, a leader in Jaysh al-Tahrir (Liberation Army) considered that Russia wanted to send messages expressing approval of the irreplaceable political solution and show the world that Bashar al-Assad is merely an employee who executes its orders, knowing that al-Assad himself accepts the political solution, but Iran is the party that refuses and insists on the military resolution as the speaker told Baladi News.
The recent of the Russian minister of defense to Bashar al-Assad in Hmeimim airbase raised several questions. Meanwhile, the regime media stated that it was an official visit and ignored naming the name of the meeting, the Russian RT network broadcast a video showing Bashar al-Assad astonished when the Russian minister unexpectedly “knocked at his door” in an unofficial place. Another noteworthy thing was that the meeting was attended by al-Assad with the minister and an interpreter, who sit at what seemed like an interrogation table. Assad appeared as if he had been summoned to receive orders from his leader. So, what messages that Russia wanted to send to the world as well as Bashar al-Assad, and what do they have to do with the reduction of the Russian airstrikes in Aleppo and Lattakia country sides?
Zuhair Harba, a military leader at Sham Legion, said that the reduction in the Russian airstrikes during the rebels’ advances in these areas is a political dodge. Through this dodge, Russia aims to appear taking a humanitarian stand towards the Syrian opposition and people who listed it as an enemy, and to support the reconciliation with Turkey by showing approval for the truce in Aleppo.
The speaker added, “Russia cannot stop its airstrikes unless a American-Russian agreement is reached, and it will escalate its military operations in the coming days no matter how things with Turkey would go”
On his part, major Yasser al-Jassem, leader at the Central Division, said to Baladi News, “The first message that the Russians want to send is for the dog’s tail [al-Assad] in order to let him know that without the Russian air cover, he would not be able to protect his headquarters in al-Muhajirin. That is why he goes cap in hand to meet the Russian defense minister. The second message is for the international community to show that it has the final word regarding the Syrian case, rather than Iran, and that al-Assad is not more than a puppet in its hands.”
It is noteworthy that the rebels had achieved huge advancements on the middle of 2015, but the Russian air forces altered the balance of power, which resulted in the regime forces grabbing most of the Kurds and Turkmen mountains in Lattakia as well as Aleppo southern countryside with the support of Shiite militias.