Baladi News – (Ayman Mohammed)
Dictated by its history and geographic location, the destiny of Middle East might be the most wicked of all. Since the dawn of civilization, the land that extends from Zagros Mountains in the west to the Mediterranean in the east has been known to be the liveliest area in terms of civilization and urbanization. In addition, it has witnessed the fastest paces of the emergence and extinction of civilizations and kingdoms. Even myths related that Fertile Crescent to the beginning of time, and rather ironically, the end of human civilization on this earth. For the Jewish and Christians, books predict that Armageddon plain in the southern Palestine will be the battlefield during the end of time, meanwhile for Muslims, the sayings of the prophet told that the final battle would be in Marj Dabiq near Aleppo.
On this land, Gilgamesh elegized the loss of his intimate companion, Enkidu in Crimea in an epic that tells the story of his passion for search for immortality. Then, somewhere near, the prophet Abraham was thrown in the furnace to burn the truth before his flesh, but the fires turned cool and peaceful. From the beginning of time, several powers reigned over this area, including Sumerians and Semites of the Arabs and their cousins, the Assyrians, Babylonians, Chaldeans, and Arameans. Then, it had become an arena of conflict between the Persian empires and the Greeks until it was conquered by Alexander the Great. Later, it returned as an arena of conflict between the Persian Sassanians and the Byzantines, and before them, the Romans. Then, proxy wars took place between the Arab Ghassanians and Manathira, who were supported by the most powerful two empires at that time in a scenario that resembles what is happening today.
Time after that, Muslims came back, regained their land, and corrected the course of history after inflicting a crashing defeat on the Sassanians who has not risen since then. Then came the Islamic conquests in which justice defeated power in Yarmouk battle. After Rashidun Caliphate, Omayyad Caliphate rose, establishing an unprecedented modern civilization for the Arabs and adding much beauty and magnificence to this land. Tales of One Thousand and One Nights were a reality in that era, with the splendors of honey and milk rivers and the gold-paved streets, which made reaching this region a dream for everyone on earth.
After Omayyad Caliphate, Abbasids rose to power and augmented this magnificence until history made one of his turns and handed over the presidency from the Arabs to the Turks and their cousins. Then, the Mongolians changed their route towards the frozen Europe to the Arab world, the land of sun and gold, but their legions were torn to pieces in the battle of Ain Jalut, after they had burned whole cities, exactly as what is happening on this day. During that time, three great men, namely Sultan Baibars, Muzaffar Qutuz, and al-Mansur Qalawun, demonstrated that this land is like a melting pot where the greatest armies fight in battles with a known beginnings, but with unknown ends, but later, history would return to its correct route.
Five hundred years after “One Thousand and One Nights” was told in the frozen Europe, crusaders pulled out their wide swords and shining shields and crossed deserts towards this land where they were decisively defeated in Hattin.
Then, the Ottomen armies entered through the widely opened doors of this land to vanquish Napoleon Bonaparte at the walls of Acre, which had a big influence in his defeat during the Battle of Waterloo against Britain.
Britain received a similar defeat in Kut Al Amara at the hands of the ottomans. After that, Sykes and Picot drew new borders for the region, dividing it into countries to be British and French colonies after Sultan Abdul Hamid refused to sell Palestine. Decades of dictatorships later, the United States comes to enter the region through its wide open gates.
Darius Rises from the Dead
After Khomeini grabbed power in a bloody revolution supported by the west, he started his first step towards spreading his revolution in Iraq by raging a war that ended with a big defeat for him, in which 1.5 million were killed and others became disabled, which tasted as a poison for Khomeini. Iraq was the country that Khomeini wanted to gain control over after making an alliance with Hafez al-Assad who was eagerly awaiting the Iranian tanks to reach the Syrian-Iraqi borders to declare Syria as an Iranian governorate and grant Khomeini a precious piece of land on the Mediterranean, which the ancient Persian king, Darius, dreamed of many centuries ago. The close relationship between Iran and the governance regime in Syria continued, and the regime became a puppet in the hands of Iran after the minor heir, Bashar al-Assad, came to power, which marked the beginning of the first Iranian occupation of Syria.
The First occupation
The colony concept, which was relevant to the areas of Africa and Latin America, applies closely to Syria in the era of Assad Junior. All its wealth, capabilities, and people are employed, willy-nelly, in the service of the occupying country. The Syrian economy became a subordinate of the Iranian one, and the country became the dumping ground of very bad Iranian goods as well as miserable ammunitions that started to flow towards the regime Army. Iranians have already had a foothold in the most important Syrian military bases, especially ballistic missiles, such as defense factories in al-Sfera in Aleppo and Al-Qutayfah as well as brigade 155 in Damascus countryside.
The invisible military and economic penetration have become explicit and overt with the beginning of the deployment of Iranian military bases in Syria, which started to appear on a step-wise basis with the development of battles and the increases in the numbers of Iranian forces and Afghan militias that receive superficial preparation and training in camps that are almost void of the regime army and considered exclusively Iranian.
In addition, many villages and areas have converted to the Shiite doctrine, which can be considered as Iranian cantons in Syria. These cantons have roles directly dictated by Iran, and the regime has no control over them. Nubul and Zahra in Aleppo northern countryside, Sayeda Zeinab neighborhood in the heart of Damascus, and others, such as kefraya and al-Foua, are examples of such areas.
Hezbollah militia has its own headquarters, and so do the militias of Fatimieyon, Zeibabiyon, and the Iraqi Shiite brigades, which operate independently of the regime forces. A Hezbollah militant is considered more valuable than any regime soldier even if he is a high rank officer. The regime soldiers are denied from entering Hezbollah headquarters without permission, which consolidates the fact that they are not supervised by the regime army.
Actually, the Iranian forces avoid having completely isolated headquarters, but tend to occupy special segments within assemblies of the regime forces in order to receive protection and avoid being clear goals. This applies to airports, such as T4 and Shayrat in Homs countryside.
In addition, these militias utilize the regime bases as defensive circles around their headquarters, as in their positions in the Academy of Military Engineering in Aleppo and near Damascus International Airport, which are surrounded by several regime military units and checkpoints.
The Russian Czar on the Mediterranean
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the relationship between the Syrian regime and Russia turned from a relation of mutual benefit to another type of relation where the regime has become an untrusted quasi-ally like any customer to which market conditions apply. This is proven by the fact that the regime has not received a single war plane for more than twenty years, which has driven it to head towards China in order to obtain military ammunition, especially in the field of electronics.
After the Iranian monopoly of the Syrian arena for four years, Russia suddenly entered the region, possibly in an attempt to prevent the collapse of the swaying regime despite the previous Iranian and Russian support.
Hence, the first Russian military base appeared in Hmeimim, which formally turned into a Russian land after the appearance of Russian border demarcation columns on its perimeter.
What distinguishes the Russian intervention is the title deed that Assad signed for the Russians, which granted them Hmeimim airbase that became the center for launching their airstrikes and improved the situation of the regime troops for a while.
After Hmeimim, Russian war planes, particularly helicopters that are needed in the desert, appeared in the airbases in the middle of Syria, namely T4 and Shayrat, to be utilized as launching bases of the Russian hovercrafts fighting against IS organization east of Homs.
However, the Russians did not evacuate the regime forces from these two bases because of their distant locations in the heart of the desert, which forces the Russians to keep the Iranians and the Syrian regime forces in the bases to defend them.
Later on, due the tensions that arose after Turkey shot down the Russian war plane, the Russians decided to obtain a military base in the north east of Syria, which was significantly driven by their alliance with the Kurdish militias and the opening of a representation office in Moscow of the Self-administration affiliated with the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, the Syrian wing of Kurdistan Worker’s Party.
Russia worked on transforming Al-Qamishli airport into a military base, even partially, insisting on the idea of the need for Kurdish defending forces due to the different nature of the area from Hmeimim that is located in the heart of an area ultimately governed by the regime that controls all its details.
In this way, Russia was granted several known airbases, in addition to unknown ones that serve its interests, including those in Salma, Palmyra, and others, over which Russia has ultimate authority.
“Uncle Sam”
Following Russia, the United States entered the region after providing massive air support to the Kurdish militias in the battle of Ain al-Arab, the city that was wiped off in order to liberate it. After achieving advances by the Kurdish Militias and creating a safe province of a reasonable area, the United States planted the seed of its first Airbase by expanding the already existing airport in Rmelan and making it suitable for the landing of military cargo planes carrying unprecedented support for the Kurdish militias that became the favorite ally for everyone, including Assad’s regime. After that, the United States started building a second military base in the south of Ain al-Arab.
France and Germany
With the spreading and increase in the complexity of battles, the additional need for air support, and the developments in the region, a number of countries started to join the international coalition for fighting IS by establishing military bases in Syria, which ranged between Air and land bases.
France obtained a special military base on an elevated hill that looks over Ain al-Arab, and so did Germany. All these bases are located so far within the area controlled by the Kurdish militias.
An Obedient Ally
Foreign military bases in Syria are mainly concentrated in two areas, the Kurdish and the regime-held parts. The size of concessions offered by the regime to the Russians at the time of establishing their military basis is well known. The regime granted a piece of the Syrian land as a price for the Russian support, which is considered a treason for which Assad must be sentenced to death under the Syrian law.
Meanwhile, it is not clear yet what type of concessions were made by the Kurds, especially that they are seeking to turn the lands under their control into a national state, but it is not expected that these concessions are much different from the Syrian regime ones.
The area is abundant with riches, starting from oil and not ending with wheat and cotton. It also has a very important strategic location. Such bases mean a less need for western military bases in Turkey and the Arab gulf. The central location, freedom of movement and action, and complete subordination of political leaders encourage the west to consider the expansion and establishment of military bases in Syria.
Dependency on Others’ powers
Both the regime and the Kurdish militias are unable to fight by themselves. As soon as air support to the regime stops, its forces spread over a vast area would collapse despite their great numbers and good armament. This was demonstrated when the regime lost a lot of positions when the Russian air support was reduced.
Meanwhile the Kurdish militias would be in a much disastrous situation, as they are not as armed as the regime, and their populations are much lower. Also, these forces are spread over vast geographic areas, which forces them do adhere to western military bases at any costs and conditions. The absence of air support would virtually mean an extensive and fast collapse of the Kurdish forces and the loss of most of the areas under their control.
Such facts turn Syria, or rather the areas controlled by the regime and the Kurdish forces, into a literally big cake for the west. Military bases are not charities, and it is illogical to receive air support costing billions of Dollars as a goodwill gesture or to support democracy or the axis of resistance and opposition!
Indeed, armies have become investment corporations that implement the governments’ orders, which simply means that the states that established such bases would not leave them before receiving back all the costs of their military operations in addition to profits.
It should be noted that the regime borrowed several billion dollars from Iran and Russia under various terms and notations, including armament contracts, loans, the costs of the Russian air campaign, and others.
These countries will have several ways to receive credits and profits, which are no different from the methods that are traditionally used by states that have colonies.
Such methods would include maintaining the unity of these areas and investing in their riches, or partitioning, which is much desired by the Kurds. However, partitioning is not accepted by the regime, Russia, and Iran, because such a measure would be damaging to the regime that would lose most of the oil and gas fields as well as wheat resources, which would place it in a big monetary and economic distress and affect its supporters who seek for guarantees to receive their credits.
In the light of this fact, partitioning seems unlikely in the near term, but it drives towards a reality similar to Iraq, where there is apparently one state, but actually two states. The Kurdish one is unable to separate because of the absence of enough supporting factors.
There is no specific answer as to how long such bases will remain in the region, but let us not forget that the United States has kept its military bases in Japan and South Korea since the war that caused their establishment ended at least 60 years ago.
It can be said that western, and even Russian, bases in the region would remain for at least a decade due to its geographic, military, and economic importance as well as the changes that would occur simultaneously with the anticipated Iranian attack against the Gulf states, which would drive the United States to maintain a strong presence in northern Syria.
Eventually, Assad and the Kurds have become the best partners in the region, which means that these bases would support their presence, consolidate their positions, and allow for a state in Syria that resembles the Iraqi model. This state might be a preliminary step toward partitioning that might arise later as the best arrangement to keep the remains of Syria!
These bases are established on lands that are in legal and international terms under Assad’s regime authority, which means that the regime would be involved in any bargain related to them, including surrender itself.
The regime has taken no legal procedures against these bases, which indicates that it implicitly accepts their existence. Moreover, it might be included as a party in any bargains regarding these bases in return for keeping it in power.
Myriads of Occupations
With the rush of foreign powers for Syria as well as the establishment of military bases therein, the country changed from the Iranian colony before war, which have almost been ended by the rebels without the Russian support, into a country occupied by myriads of states. However, these states use an untraditional style of occupation. This style relies on local military powers on the ground, which are manipulated and directed by the west in an attempt to avoid suffering humanitarian casualties that direct military intervention might bring. This resembles the American strategy in Iraq, or a part of it. After the United States occupied Iraq militarily, it established, sometime later, troops of Iraqis loyal to Iran. Meanwhile in Syria, the United States followed a reversed approach. First, it established the needed powers, namely the Kurdish militias, paved the way for them to gain control over vast areas, and then pushed forward its troops to establish military bases in these areas, thus minimizing its humanitarian casualties and eliminating any responsibilities of the United States and its allies.
Due to its riches and important location, Syria is considered the second major gain after Iraq, where all countries seek to have a foothold. Even Norway showed intention to send troops to Syria, which makes this geographical zone as a cake that is about to be divided among those participating in its destruction.
The strangest thing in the Syrian case are the accusations of the Syrian rebels as being traitors and puppets in the hands of the west, Turkey, and the Gulf countries. Nevertheless, a quick glance at the areas of the western bases confirms the absence of a single base in the rebels-held areas. Even Turkey and the Gulf countries, accused of supporting and arming the rebels, do not seem to have any plans for building military bases in the areas of their “allies” if you will.