Saleh Abu Ismaeel – Baladi News
Assad’s regime, through the spokesperson of its Army General Command, declared on Friday that a “regime of calm” will be enforced in several parts of Syria including Damascus and Lattakia’s northern countryside. The pretext of the regime behind this “calm”, which starts at 1:00 AM on April 30, is to prevent “the terrorist groups” from targeting civilians (according to the declaration).
In its arrogantly-worded declaration similar to all its previous statements, Assad’s regime demonstrates its strategy of isolating the areas that it intends to seize and concentrate its forces in, and uses the word “calm” instead of “truce” to give an ambiguous meaning to its alleged ceasefire.
The regime did not explain what “regime of calm” means, that it intends to implement for 24 hours in these areas and for 72 hours in yet another area. Will this “calm” include the stoppage of all the military operations, the air strikes and artillery shelling only, or other things?
Most importantly, the ceasefire does not include the city of Aleppo, but covers two absolutely different fronts, namely Damascus and Lattakia’s northern countryside. The regime apparently seeks to ensure the state of calm and protect its positions while preparing to attack Aleppo in order to prevent any military actions or operations by the rebels against its forces in these areas in response to the bombing of Aleppo.
Although it will not commit to the truce, the regime in the first place will benefit from the stoppage of the military operations in these areas to concentrate its forces and prepare to attack Aleppo, taking advantage of the international approval and support.
Calming the fronts is the key to the success of the potential attack of the regime against Aleppo. However, if a big battle is waged in Hama’s northern countryside, Lattakia’s countryside, or even Daraa, not to mention Damascus, the regime would be forced to delay the battle of Aleppo until the fight stops in the other fronts.
Opening these fronts, especially by waging a well-organized and staggering big battle in Damascus’s countryside, would potentially reduce the burden on Aleppo and undermine the plan of the regime, particularly after its quest for a calm in these areas.
Sectarian cleansing
Today, the regime is working on evacuating citizens from the city of Aleppo by blockading it completely. Less than 30% of the circumference of the city is under rebels control, while the regime, as well as the Kurdish militias, dominate the remaining 70% of it. The current bombardment has the essential goal of displacing civilians and forcing them out for several reasons, most notably ethical cleansing. The neighborhoods that have shown rebellion are the popular neighborhoods which are known for their conservative nature and long history against the regimes of both Hafez Al-Assad and his son Bashar who has not hesitated to bombard them with all sorts of weapons since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in March 2011.
The regime is trying to repeat the scenario of Homs in Aleppo , using a combination of the Nazi tactics during World War II as well as the Russian tactics during the Battle of Grozny. This means that the “cruel” bombardment targeting the vital areas will continue for a while, so a major displacement would occur in the city.
The strikes will target the hospitals first, then the bakeries and markets as well as the areas that directly affect people’s live hoods in order to complicate the situations to the extent that would force people to leave the city, not only out of the fear of dying under shelling, but also due to lacking the means of survival and life necessities. At this stage, the regime will allow people to leave the city with the aim of evacuating it, then it will- as usual- prevent them from returning.