Rani Jaber, Baladi News
Al-Nusra Front handed over the pilot whose jet (Sukhoi 22) was shot down two days ago, to Ahrar Al-Sham movement, after the latter has proved that the jet was shot down by a "thermal missile," which led to a lot of speculations about the nature and source of the missiles and the time they entered Syria.
Assad's regime was first to announce the downing of the jet by an anti-aircraft missile, linking its fall to the downing of MiG 21 about a month ago in Hama, where some news agencies allegedly reported that it was downed by an anti-aircraft missile.
As no statements from any party concerning the type of the missile have been made, the commentary text published by Al-Nusra Front points out that the missile is thermal. This is not the first time thermal missiles are used in Syria; several cases of aircrafts' downing by such missiles, especially helicopters have been recorded. rebels obtained a number of these missiles in several ways; seized from the regime's army, or sometimes bought from this forces, and in rare cases provided by other countries for some factions as a kind of support, particularly FN-6 missiles, which have downed more than a jet.
It was observed that the activity of Russian warplanes has been on a downward trajectory since the announcement of the Russian withdrawal, and in particular the region where the jet was shot down, in which regime forces had lost key areas, including Tal Al-Eis due to the attack by the rebels that was welcomed without the Russian air support, resulting in the loss of that important region. Some links the decline of the Russian overflights to the arrival of anti-aircraft weapons to the rebels' hands, especially after the statements made by the Saudi foreign minister regarding the possibility of supplying the rebels with an anti-aircraft missiles, which explains why Russians withdrew their warplanes from Syria, although they are equipped in a way that reduces the likelihood of being shot by anti-aircraft missiles, especially when flying up to 6 km altitude, as when a Turkish jet shot down a Russian warplane (Sukhoi 24), which was flying at an altitude of 6 km in order to avoid shoulder-held missiles.
Downing a jet with a shoulder-fired missile, with the current impossibility of supplying more sophisticated air defense systems to the rebels, indicates a good technical level of the missile and a high experience by the launcher. These missiles have a lot of work limitations, most importantly the limited vertical range, which does not exceed 3,700 meters for most kinds (some kinds do not exceed 2500 meters), that reduces their effectiveness to a large extent and determines their goals by targeting low-flying planes or in a case of attacking.
If the jet was proved to be shot down by a "thermal missile", this will put pressure a great pressure on Assad and his allies. It is true that the shoulder-held missiles will not solve the problem radically, but they are considered a useful addition to the capabilities of the rebels, helping them to achieve gains on the ground and to protect civilians against regime's aircrafts raids in case they arrived in quantities sufficient to be used on a large scale.
