Orient Net
Over the weekend, fierce fighting erupted between various opposition groups and pro-regime forces in Aleppo where 25 pro-regime and 16 opposition fighters were reportedly killed. The clashes resulted in the opposition recapturing a number of strategic villages in northern Aleppo. Other clashes occurred along the Jabal al-Akrad in northwestern Latakia, resulting in casualties on both sides and the seizing of a number of villages from pro-regime forces.
In addition, there has there has been a significant increase in regime airstrikes on opposition-held areas across Syria in an attempt to gain territory during the truce. Moreover, Jaysh al-Islam, a main opposition group, also announced over the weekend that at least 15 regime soldiers were killed while they were trying to advance in eastern Ghouta outside Damascus.
Although previous violations of the ongoing ceasefire have occurred before in various parts of the country, the recent developments indicate that there is a serious threat to the ongoing fragile cessation of hostilities. “With fighting in eastern Ghouta and now a massive escalation in southern Aleppo, we may be watching the official end to the cessation of hostilities.” Charles Lister, resident fellow at the Middle East institute, commented in a tweet on the latest military developments in Syria.
The partial ceasefire, which is the first of its kind in Syria’s five-year conflict, was engineered by the US and Russia and took effect on Feb 27, 2016. The cessation of hostilities agreement required the various factions in the conflict to effectively cease all attacks against each other. However, it explicitly excluded ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, against whom military action could continue.
Russia did not commit to ending its airstrikes in Syria, but repeated its insistence that it was targeting terrorist groups. All parties agreed to abide by the US-Russian plan, but reserved the right to respond if attacked. A joint working force by the US, Russia and other countries was created to monitor the ceasefire and deal with any violations. Furthermore, the deal also included measures to resume the delivery of humanitarian aid to all areas across the country.
The ceasefire in Syria has proved more effective and durable than expected, as it has significantly reduced violence and reportedly casualties across the country since it began. It allowed many Syrians to peacefully demonstrate and to go about their day to day activities safely.
According to several groups monitoring the ceasefire in Syria, the Syrian regime has taken advantage of the ambiguity of the ceasefire to strike opposition-held areas across Syria.
The recent military developments on the ground pose the most serious threat to the ceasefire agreement to date, owing to the fact that unlike previous isolated breaches, the clashes have resulted in the seizing of new territories.
This indicates that the purpose of most of the Syrian regime’s breaches has been to score casualties and create disturbances rather than seizing territory. These isolated attacks are easy to get away with as they are random and consistent with Assad’s collective punishment strategy to spread terror among civilians.
The fact that violations have occurred simultaneously in different areas in the country, Aleppo, Latakia and rural Damascus, indicates the current feeling of widespread dissatisfaction among armed groups. According to Wael, a media activist in northern Aleppo, tensions have been rising in southern Aleppo over the past week as pro-regime forces increased their shelling and military activities: “Although the situation was calmer than before, Assad continued shelling civilians. Two days ago, 14 airstrikes took place in the town of Deir al-Asafir in eastern Ghouta and 31 civilians were killed and dozens of others were injured. We have been reporting these violations but no one is doing anything to stop them.”
Furthermore, the recent ceasefire violations come in the wake of Russia’s announcement last month that it will withdraw its forces from Syria.
The ongoing partial cessation of hostilities has reduced the level of violence in Syria, despite the large number of breaches. Therefore, there is an urgent need for world power, namely the US and Russia, to address the ongoing violations before the entire ceasefire falls apart. The ceasefire went into effect against all odds because there was a strong political will to implement it. Therefore, its future continuation or breakdown will indicate how determined world powers are to solve the conflict in Syria.