Baladi News
As planned by the UN envoy of Syria, Staffan de Mistura, Geneva negotiations reached an impasse.
De Mistura, who certainly means what he says, mentioned what can be regarded as five surprises in Geneva 7, which are totally different from what participators refer to in their statements to the media.
The first surprise, to which he referred on 27 June, was about "uniting the opposition's delegations of Riyadh, Cairo, and Moscow.
The second is his declaration that "he is ready to facilitate direct negotiations between the government and the opposition," which was originally demanded by the opposition and delayed by him until the relatively weak 5th stage, which makes them likely to be rejected by either the opposition or the regime."
The third surprise, the most essential of all, is copying his experience when he was an envoy of Afghanistan to a very sensitive turning point in the peace operation in Syria. He said, "I will give an example. A while ago, as members of the Council recall, we passed the moment of truth in Afghanistan. It was so many years ago. I was there then as well as some of the members of the Council who are here today. There was a feeling that nothing was moving forward until we reached a certain point when a conference was held in Bonn. Much of the preparatory work, which at times seems cumbersome or inconclusive, as those who were part of the Conference, has been put into effect immediately and used as the basis for the Bonn Conference. We are doing something similar in some way, preparing ourselves to prepare for the real Geneva conference, God willing."
When mentioning Bonn, the man refers to the following:
- Transferring the political operations elsewhere than Geneva and Astana, either to Paris or another French city, based on the comeback of the French president and amid talks about returning the diplomatic relations with the regime and reopening the French embassy in Damascus.
- Moving the political operation away from the United States and adopting a new base according to the outcomes of previous consultations.
A forth surprise took place on the second day of Geneva 7. In some diplomatic corridors there was a talk about a scenario that includes holding the negations in a neutral place Damascus with international guarantees.
The fifth surprise, and the most resounding of all, was blown by de Mistura in the third day of Geneva 7 when he was in a meeting with the negotiating delegation. He said, "the next round of negotiations could take place either in Kathmandu or Damascus.
The man, by mentioning Kathmandu, could be referring to the scenario of 2001, when a bloody massacre was committed by the crown prince of the country, who shot the king, the queen, and other members of the ruling family dead.
Probably, there will be an international decision to remove Assad from power.
Such a solution will be perfect for all parties for the following reasons:
- It will maintain and prevent the collapse of the Syrian state.
- It will guarantee maintaining the army and security forces, which meets the desires of Russia, Iran, and even Arab countries.
- It will prevent the dismemberment of Syria and the establishment of a Kurdish region in the north, which satisfies Turkey.
- It will remove Assad, which satisfies the majority of Syrians.
- It will lead to the establishment of a government of national salvation, which satisfies the political opposition.
- It will allow refugees to return from neighboring countries.
- It will allow several states to enter into reconstruction contracts, granting them huge profits that will guarantee their support for the new situation.
- Launching limited reforms that will keep the Syrian state playing the role of safeguarding Israel.