Ayman Muhammad, Baladi News
The current period witnesses a state of tension between regime forces and the Kurdish militias under the banner of SDF militias. This state of tension was aggravated by the easy advancement of regime forces on the regions of eastern Aleppo which resulted from a series of retreats by ISIS before the regime. These retreats serve the general strategy of the regime in Syria resembled in compressing its forces and re-positioning them in the vital defense points in a preparation for the next stage of the war which is most likely to be a gang war.
The relation between regime forces and SDF militias is good despite the current tension as the latter is protecting the interests of regime in the regions they control along with allowing Assad to keep control over a main airport in the regions under their control in al-Qamishli. On the other hand, the regime facilitates the movement of trade convoys between the separate regions controlled by SDF in the Syrian north.
The real conflict between the two parties revolves around regime's endeavor to reach the southern border of al-Raqqa which will give it the military advantage of observing the whole city and controlling the east, south, and west parts of the city by arms. This can be considered a pressure card in the hands of the regime against the Kurdish militias as controlling one strategic part in the city can cause a lot of damage on the military level in case of any direct clash with those militias.
In a broader view on the rapprochement between the regime and Kurdish militias, we found that Iran also welcomes this harmony between those units and the sectarian Shiite militias in Iraq as it believes that the Kurdish regions in Syria are a vital part of the land road connecting Tehran with Beirut. The Iraqi government also shares this viewpoint with Tehran.
The clash between the regime and the Kurdish militias is not likely to develop into a full cut of relations for the time being, but this may happen in an advanced stage especially after the declaration of the Kurdish state in the Syrian north. In this stage, the regime is aware that it doesn’t have enough pressure cards on the Kurds and that a full cut of relations may lead to the loss of al-Hasakah and al-Qamishli along with any chance to stay in al-Raqqa and the Syrian north in general.
The Kurdish units, on the other hand, are aware that the direct war with the regime will cause them to lose the road connecting between their regions in east and west of the Euphrates.
The control of Kurdish Units over areas in the Syrian north
In a nutshell, the relation between the regime and the Kurdish units didn't reach the stage of full cut yet as each of them knows that it needs the other even if it's a temporary need, but a full cut of relations and even a real clash is probable as the seeds of it exist in the project of each of them and the thoughts of their supporters .