Huff post
South Syria is where it all started , when in March 2011, the Sunni populace of the region, mainly in its Capital Dar’a, revolted against years of deliberate neglect by the Alawite regime, particularly the scarcity of water. Since then, the situation in the region reflected the overall state of affairs in Syria; tenuous Assad control over parts of it, many rebel elements in control of some other parts, and in conflict with each other, and sectarian tensions and occasional violence between Druze and Sunnis. What has made it ever more volatile, is the strategic importance of the region being the Syria-Jordan-Israel border area.
On some occasions, the potential for troubles between these countries was very actual when Israel retaliated forcefully for mortar and rocket attacks from there towards its territory. The Israelis made it abundantly clear, that so long as this area is under formal control of the Assad regime, it is this regime which would bear the brunt of retaliatory Israeli actions if and when Israel’s territory in the Golan was attacked. In Syria as in Syria, a complicated situation became much more so, because of the interference of hostile aggressive foreign elements, such as Hizballah , other pro Iranian elements and rarely also ISIS. From Jordan’s perspective, the precarious situation in the South became untenable due to the mass flight of refugees from there to its territory-nearly a million starving , desperate Syrians. So, when put together, we have here all the ingredients of a powder keg waiting to explode, with an added element of danger , and this is the Russian and American interest. This blog called attention to the emerging problem before, and here again, as tensions seem to be on the brink of a major eruption.
For months, and in particular in recent weeks, there have been many reports about military preparations in the Jordanian side of the border, possibly to invade South Syria from Jordan, with the aim of stopping the flow of refugees, but also of cleaning the region from militants, both Shi’ites and Sunnis, who can lead to an uncontrolled regional conflict. In fact, we witness now more than just preparations, as military action has already taken place, but not in the vicinity of the Israeli -Syrian -Jordanian border, rather more deeply in South East Syria, in the area of the borders of Syria-Iraq- Jordan. There is now a concerted effort led by the US with active American military participation to block this region from being the invasion route to Syria of Iranian and pro-Iranian militias.
The Americans, in a clear and assertive departure from the policy enacted under President Obama , attacked Syrian army units and pro-Assad Shi’ite militias in the vicinity of Al Tanf, and declared this area to be a no go for the Assad-Iran -Shi’ite forces, and did so in blatant disregard to the fact, that Russia considers this region as one of its zones of direct influence in Syria. Whether the American action is just local in nature, or part of a grander strategy is not clear right now, and it seems that any bigger American involvement in this region may be coming , if at all, only after some coordination with the Russians. There are signs that this is the case, particularly when we consider the current tone of Russian rhetoric about the US involvement which is much softer than before.
However, in recent days there are increasing signs, that the Assad regime,as well as their Iranian-Shi’ite allies are switching their attention from the Al Tanf region to where it all started-Dar’a . There are reports about a massive concentration of Syrian troops there, including armored divisions 4,5 and 9. In the, past, these were the elite units of the Assad army, built towards the possibility of war with Israel,but under the pressure of the civil war, they have been decimated, though still formidable enough to defeat the rebel units in the Dar’a area. Division 4 is led by Maher Assad, the younger and more brutal brother of Bashar Assad, who was seriously injured in an attempt on his life few years ago. Such a concentration of forces, which requires weakening of the Syrian military presence in other parts of Syria, may portend to the utmost importance which the Assad regime relates to the South. It may send a signal to Jordan and the West, also because such a massive offensive of ground forces should have aerial backing, and this is where Russia gets into the picture, but also Israel. In the past, the Israelis considered the South to be part of their zone of interest, especially claiming freedom of aerial operations there. Having such significant Syrian troops near the border, having the Iranians and their allies there , possible Russian aerial activity as well, maybe also American, and here we have the potential to a big crisis.
Syria’s civil war has long become a regional conflict, and recently has started to look also as a possible international conflict. While most attention was focused on North Syria, it is the considered advice of this blog, that a lot more attention should be given to the South of Syria. It is the eleventh hour, and if we come to the twelfth, all hell can break loose over there. It will not be pleasant.