The Jerusalem Post
In Thursday, Iran, Russia and Turkey signed a memorandum on the creation of “de-escalation” zones in Syria. The agreement represents a new phase in the six-year-old Syrian civil war. If the agreement and the cease-fires it envisions hold up, it represents a de facto partition of the country into various zones of influence and a recognition that neither side, the regime or the rebels, can win this conflict at the present time.
The text of the agreement says it is to allow for an improvement of the humanitarian situation and to “create favorable conditions to advance a political settlement of the conflict.” In the zones mapped out under the agreement, the use of weapons, including “aerial assets, shall be ceased.”
The agreement was not signed by the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad, which is interesting, rather it says that Iran, Turkey and Russia will be the guarantors of the agreement. That quietly shifts the conflict from one between the regime and the opposition rebel groups, to one between powerful foreign nations that have sent their armed forces or proxies into the country.
In Russia’s case this is the Russian Air Force and special forces. Turkey has carved out an area of influence between Jarabulus and Kilis in northern Syria as well as supporting certain rebel groups such as Faylaq al-Sham (the Sham Legion, also known as the Homs Legion). Iran has sent its Revolutionary Guards to Syria along with supporting Hezbollah’s intervention and the recruitment of Shia volunteers such as the Afghans who serve in the Fatemiyoun Division.
The agreement says that the three signatory powers will prepare maps of the zones and that they will “separate the armed opposition groups from the terrorist groups.” This clause has existed in previous cease-fire agreements but has been difficult for the Syrian rebel groups to adhere to because the “terrorist groups” often referenced refer not only to Islamic State but also to Al-Qaida in Syria which is known as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or the Nusra Front.
In the patchwork mosaic of groups that makes up some rebel areas, the presence of Nusra has allowed the Russians and the regime to continue bombing under the pretext of “fighting terror” even after cease-fires are created. Similarly, rebel groups and groups such as Nusra may exploit cease-fires to infiltrate terrorists into regime-controlled areas.
The agreement maps out four de-escalation areas. The largest is in Idlib province in northwestern Syria. The zone is about the size of half of Israel or the size of the whole state of Connecticut.
This is what is left of the rebel heartland that once stretched to Aleppo and beyond. Another area north of the city of Homs, is a smaller pocket of rebels. An even smaller enclave known as eastern Ghouta is located next to Damascus.