The Middle East Eye published a report which says that Assad has already lost control of Syria, and has no leverage to coax Russia and Iran into an open conflict with the USA and Turkey.
Even if Assad succeeds in clearing the surrounding areas of Damascus of his enemies, and even if he succeeds in entrenching his forces in Aleppo and retaking the last major rebel stronghold of Idlib, the question of retaking the rest of Syria remains far from certain, the report says.
The Middle East Eye mentioned the Turkish and American interests in the north, and the presence of both of them in Syria.
It says also that the Americans have made it clear that they will not abandon their interests in Syria, even if the Kurds become unusable.
The report then talks about expanding the Shia Crescent, and mentions the liaising with Hezbollah of Lebanon to deliver the decisive blow to the Free Syrian Army in Quseyr in 2013, and said that any potential antagonism from Assad's side towards Iran is restricted by the geographic pincer through which Tehran can keep Assad in check. With Hezbollah in the west and militias in the east, both not too far from Damascus, Assad is effectively held ransom - a situation that is compounded by the absence of a credible Syrian army.
Meanwhile, the Russians have cemented their presence in Hmeimim and Tartus. Foreign intervention always comes with a price, and Syria will be expected to pay a hefty one for all the effort Russia has put into rescuing the regime.
With these four forces entrenched in Syria, it is difficult to see how far government forces can go towards retaking Syria. These forces are not strong enough to fight against Turkish army and are unlikely to be able to rely on Russia, Turkey’s current ally, to help in this endeavor, and they also lack the capabilities to fight US forces in Manbij. Therefore, as it stands, Assad’s apparent resurgence is more a fallacy than a reality, and his victories can only be described as hollow at best, the Middle East Eye concluded.
