Turki Mustafa, Baladi News
Al-Raqqah is the main axis in the midst of the ongoing conflict in Syria and all the parties of this conflict are struggling to control it, so will the International powers allow one of the parties to have the final word in the battle?
Introduction
After the battle of al-Bab which is about to end, the city of al-Raqqah, the main fortress of ISIS in the Syrian north, has entered the front of the military confrontation among the parties of the conflict, who are: "Euphrates Shield" and Turkey from the one hand, and Kurdish units and their American allies on the other hand, not to forget Assad's forces, Russia and Iranian militias.
Strategic Importance of al-Raqqah
al-Raqqah governorate is the most important and influential region in the southern part of Turkey as they share long borders. al-Raqqah also is the home of the Euphrates dam and a few oil wells which gives it significant economic advantages. The city of al-Raqqah is very important on the strategic level as it is one of the most important points that geographically connects al-Hassakah and Deir al-Zor with Aleppo, and the Syrian desert with the Turkish borders. It also has a number of land roads and bridges that connect the banks of the Euphrates river.
On the military level, the international coalition has realized the strategical importance of those roads and bridges, so it deliberately destroyed the main bridge of al-Raqqah. Moreover, the Iranian militias have observed the road connecting the city of al-Bab with Deir Hafer by snipers , not to mention the endeavors of the separatist Kurdish units to control the road connecting al-Raqqah with Deir al-Zor in an attempt to isolate the city and tighten the siege on it.
It's noteworthy that ISIS is exerting massive efforts in order to protect the strongholds in al-Raqqah and in preparation for a battle that may be long, as ISIS considers al-Raqqah to be its capital in Syria.
On the field level, the military plans to control al-Raqqah reveal huge disputes inside each party even though the general scene reflects an agreement, and the progress of the battles reflect tactics and plans that deserve to be observed in details in order to anticipate their results.
Parties of the Conflict:
1.Factions of the Armed Syrian Opposition: They consist of military battalions affiliated to the Syrian opposition factions, including "al-Sham Legion", Ahrar al-Sham movement and others, along with FSA which fights with "Euphrates Shield". Those battalions are supported by the joint special force in the Turkish Armed Forces and Turkish Air Force.
2.Syrian Democratic Forces:
A military entity with Kurdish leadership that mainly includes Kurdish militants and some Arabs and is supported by the U.S. SDF have managed to control Manbij and connect Afrin and Kobani though Jarabuls, Manbij and al-Bab, but their separatist project was foiled by the Euphrates Shield operation. It's noteworthy that the Kurdish forces used to fight with Assad against FSA.
3.ISIS
It controlled the city of al-Bab and the liberated villages of the Syrian-Turkish borderline in 2014 after repelling FSA from them, then ISIS suffered several losses with the beginning of the battle of "Euphrates Shield" in August, 2016.
4.Iranian Militias and Regime Forces:
They include the Lebanese militias of Hezbollah and "al-Baqer" militia that is funded and trained by Iran, along with Assad's militia led by Suhail al-Hassan and a number of Russian militants. Those forces are stationed in the eastern countryside of Aleppo and supported by Russian air force.
Military Plans
The battles are taking place in a vast operation region according to conditional plans which are imposed by political and military circumstances. The confrontations in the way to al-Raqqah are distinguished in many strategies, one of which is the blood shedding strategy adopted by PYD and the coalition supporting it, but this strategy was very exhausting for both PYD militants and ISIS along with the civilians in the region. This exhaustion gave the Euphrates Shield forces advantage over ISIS in al-Bab battle. Regarding the tactics followed in the battles, we can notice that the Free Syrian Army in coordination with the Turkish forces have developed their attacking mechanisms by investing the Turkish air raids to paralysis the militants of ISIS and prevent them from gathering to launch a counter count, and so the attacks of ISIS became mere reactions after being stuck in a small part of the city. There is no doubt that the Euphrates Shield control over al-Bab city has forced the Iranian militias to avoid clashing with them or with the Turkish forces. Some opinions see that Euphrates Shield forces will head east towards Manbij which is controlled by SDF in order to complete creating a safe zone inside Syria that can be used in the future to prevent a new spate of displacement and to deliver humanitarian aid to the civilians along with cleaning the borders of terrorist organizations including PKK and YPG.
The Dimensions of the Confrontation Among the Conflicting Parties
The battle of al-Raqqah is closely linked to the ongoing battles on its outskirts and to face that, ISIS has resorted to multiply its forces and fortify its positions. The Syrian Free Army, under the leadership of Euphrates Shield forces, on the other hand, is advancing rapidly on the field level and is expected to fully control al-Bab city within hours. Iran, in its turn, is working on ruining the agreement between Ankara and Moscow in order to impose its role as a regional player through enhancing the existence of its militia on ground, not to forget the American role in this battle that manifests through its will to involve Ankara in the operation of liberating al-Raqqah.
The race towards al-Raqqah is hectic as the first to arrive there and repel ISIS, whether "Euphrates Shield", Iranian militias or "SDF", is the party that will impose its military and political existence in the war against terrorism.